That would mean 224,000 more lives lost in the US over the next four months.
“If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000,” according to IHME’s briefing.
The death rate could reach an unprecedented 3,000 a day by December, due in part to “declining vigilance of the public,” the IHME expects. For now, the model points to declining mask use in some regions from peak usage in early August.
The IHME model is more aggressive in its predictions than others. It comes a day after a new CDC ensemble forecast predicted 211,000 US deaths from Covid-19 by September 26.
Coronavirus has infected over 6.1 million people nationwide, and more than 186,800 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Campuses urged to ban tobacco use in the fall
In a letter to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Democratic lawmakers urged the federal health agency to review its Covid-19 guidelines and recommend no smoking, vaping or chewing tobacco in schools.
The letter cites a study suggesting that young people who’ve used e-cigarettes can be five times more likely to be diagnosed with Covid-19. Stanford University researchers published the report last month in the Journal of Adolescent Health.
“Following the Stanford study, the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) announced that it was banning tobacco use on campus in the fall … In making that decision, UNLV took into account that if someone is smoking, vaping, or chewing tobacco, they cannot be complying with requirements to wear a mask,” Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin wrote in the letter.
With the public health risk posed by coronavirus, they said, the CDC should “act quickly and forcefully.”
Last month, Krishnamoorthi wrote a letter to the Food and Drug Administration asking it to temporarily clear the market of all e-cigarettes during the coronavirus crisis. He wrote it on behalf of the Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy.
Young people urged to be cautious
More young people are getting infected with the coronavirus at higher numbers. Experts fear that will only grow as many colleges and schools reopen.
In August alone, for example, nearly 7,000 people between ages 18-24 tested positive for Covid-19 in Missouri, Gov. Mike Parson said. About 30% of the new cases in the state are among that age group.
“While young, healthy people are likely to have mild symptoms and quick recoveries … they may unknowingly carry Covid-19 to someone older or with underlying conditions, who is unable to fight off the virus. This is why it is so important for young people to take precautions and understand the responsibility,” Parson said.
While more young people continue to test positive, the vast majority of them have not required hospitalization.
Read More: US coronavirus: Death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next 4 months