In my last Forbes note below
I referred to a study that showed that people are the most dissatisfied with political systems over the last forty years, especially so in the two chief Anglo-Saxon countries. Mindful of the Shakespeare quote in Hamlet that ‘When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions’, more bad news has arrived.
Too much bad news
A study from Carbon Brief that has collated data from six different research groups (e.g. NASA) to show that 2020 is the ‘hottest’ year in centuries, the Vix index of stock market stress reached highs only surpassed on a handful of occasions in the last forty years and, two academics in the US (Peter Turchin and Jack Goldstone) have recently highlighted that their political stress index is at a multi decade high, something they feel portends imminent revolution in the USA.
Add to that the re-imposing of lockdowns across Europe and a wave of savage terror attacks in France, and it is all, frankly, too much. I sense that a great many people are truly fed up with 2020.
The outlook might brighten on Tuesday, in the shape of a dashing political cavalry charge by Joe Biden and his team to re-take the White House. If this happens in a convincing way, stock market volatility will be crushed, America might tackle COVID better, the green economy should flourish, and we may even see a sense of collaboration between Washington and Brussels to produce better coordinated recovery plans across the ‘Old World’. Any result other than an emphatic Biden one will likely see us confined to stress-ridden purgatory.
I am not going to spend any more time trying to predict the US presidential election but rather want to focus a little on the nature and consequences of such a stressed world.
Rise of Short-termism
One is the propensity for people’s view of the world to be conditioned by stress – in general there is a tendency towards short-termism in the sense that we lose sight of longer term trends, and in addition a tendency to over emphasise dramatic outcomes. It strikes me that the media has been more than usually coloured with warnings of a repeat of the ‘2016 election surprise’, a ‘1987 market crash’, ‘1918 level health emergency’ and impending cyber wars, to note just a few examples. We need to keep at least an eye on the longer term outlook, as outlined in ‘Roaring 20’s’ (17.10.2020).
A more serious side-effect is the way in which this epidemic and its consequences will condition behaviour and mindsets….